India's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to 6.3 per cent, and despite a projected moderation, the country remains one of the fastest-growing large economies, supported by resilient consumption and government spending, the United Nations has said.
Wholesale price inflation dropped to 0.85 per cent in April as prices of food articles, manufactured products, and fuel eased, government data showed on Wednesday. WPI-based inflation was 2.05 per cent in March. It was 1.19 per cent in April last year.
Moody's Ratings on Wednesday said US tariffs will weaken credit conditions and raise defaults risks especially for low-rated and speculative grade corporates. It said that an unpredictable US trade policy will lead to a deterioration in global credit conditions and macroeconomic impact will slow growth with a growing possibility of recession.
'Right now, silver -- and especially platinum -- are very cheap compared to gold. If I were buying today, I would choose platinum.'
Early-bird results for the January-March 2025 quarter (Q4FY25) suggest a slowdown in earning growth for India Inc, despite a benign cost environment that has led to an improvement in margins. The combined net profit (adjusted for exceptional gains and losses) of 175 early-reporting companies rose by 3.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in Q4FY25, marking the slowest growth in 17 quarters.
From the Sensex firms, Eternal, ICICI Bank, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma, State Bank of India, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Reliance Industries were among the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Maruti were the laggards.
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Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
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From the Sensex pack, Bharti Airtel, Titan, Tata Consultancy Services, Hindustan Unilever, Infosys, Nestle, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, HDFC Bank and Tata Motors were the biggest gainers. However, IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance and UltraTech Cement were the laggards.
Global funds have pulled out Rs 1.54 trillion from domestic stocks in fiscal 2024 - 25 (FY25), the highest-ever outflow recorded so far, according to the data compiled by Business Standard. The last time the global funds exited Indian shores in droves was back in 2022, when they sold a net Rs 1.41 in the backdrop of Covid-19.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Public-sector banks, including Canara Bank and Bank of India, are tapping the infrastructure bond market. Canara Bank on Tuesday raised Rs 10,000 crore at a coupon rate of 7.40 per cent through 10-year infrastructure bonds. This comes after SBI on July 10 raised Rs 10,000 crore also through infrastructure bonds with a 15-year tenor at a coupon rate of 7.36 per cent.
Among the 30-share Sensex blue-chip pack, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Titan, UltraTech Cement, HCL Technologies, and Power Grid, were the biggest gainers. Tata Steel, IndusInd Bank, JSW Steel and Bajaj Finserv were the laggards.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday retained India's growth forecast at 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal and said it expects the RBI to start cutting interest rates in its October monetary policy review. In the economic outlook of Asia Pacific, S&P Global Ratings also retained its GDP growth forecast for the 2025-26 fiscal at 6.9 per cent and said solid growth in India will allow the Reserve Bank to focus on bringing inflation in line with its target.
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'Our new business premium is around Rs 700 crore, which we want to take to Rs 2,000 crore.'
'The central bank has highlighted that the slowdown in growth has been limited to a few sectors and overall growth is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.'
Adani Ports and JSW Infrastructure, India's leading private port operators, are expanding their logistics services to capture extra cargo while they run integrated transport services. "With incrementally less availability of lucrative port assets that can drive cargo volumes, port operators have naturally shifted their focus on deriving value in the upstream integration, i.e., the logistics space.
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The US Fed interest rate decision, trading activity of foreign investors and quarterly earnings from corporates would largely drive the momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack will also remain on investors' radar, they added.
'India is a very strategic geography. The business is growing over 37-38 per cent year-on-year.'
'If you look at where inflation (headline and core) is today in India and where the rates are, there's clearly room to cut rates.'
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
As banks' chase for customers to collect cheap deposits is not fructifying, they are forced to offer inflation-beating real interest rates on fixed deposits now, and state-run banks led by Punjab & Sind Bank tops the chart offering 8-8.50 per cent per annum deposit rate. Banks are forced to offer inflation-beating deposit rates for a tenor ranging from 200 to 800 days as credit growth has been far outpacing deposit mobilization throughout this fiscal, leading to a funding crunch.
Export-led Indian IT sector is not directly hit by Trump's tariff order on goods, but there could be worrisome indirect bearings on it arising out of possible slowdown in decision-making and GDP growth in America over higher tariffs, which may then cloud demand from specific verticals, according to some analysts.
While growth in India is largely domestic and hence the overall GDP effect may not be more than 0.15-0.2%, but overall trade will be impacted due to every country going back to the drawing board, points out Madan Sabnavis.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty settled higher on Thursday, powered by a rally in banking and power stocks amid a largely firm trend in global markets. The stock markets mostly traded range-bound in the absence of any major trigger and persistent foreign capital outflows, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 144.31 points, or 0.18 per cent, to settle at 81,611.41.
For FY26, the company has adopted a cautious outlook, anticipating domestic growth to broadly track the industry's low single-digit estimated growth amid ongoing economic headwinds.
Benchmark Sensex rose by nearly 91 points to close at a fresh lifetime high while Nifty settled above the 25,400 level for the first time supported by firm global trends ahead of the much-awaited US Fed's decision on interest rates. Extending its record-setting spree for the second day, the 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 90.88 points or 0.11 per cent to settle at a lifetime high of 83,079.66. During the day, it rose by 163.63 points or 0.19 per cent to 83,152.41.
Gold prices rose by Rs 70 to hit yet another record high of Rs 98,170 per 10 grams in the national capital on Thursday amid firm global demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association. On Wednesday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity soared by Rs 1,650 to hit an all-time high of Rs 98,100 per 10 grams.
The country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank on Saturday said it will grow its loan book slower than the industry in the current financial year (FY25). The move comes as the lender looks to bring down its elevated credit - deposit (CD) ratio to pre-merger levels. "We will bring down the CD ratio faster than what we had anticipated.
For over a decade, HDFC Bank consistently outperformed industry growth rates in both deposits and advances, maintaining impeccable asset quality. Amid a landscape where other banks struggled with soaring non-performing assets (NPAs), HDFC Bank thrived, eventually surpassing ICICI Bank to become the largest private sector lender in India. Its net interest margin (NIM) remained stable in the range of 4.1-4.4 per cent.
Trading sentiment in the equity market will largely be driven by domestic corporate quarterly earnings, any update related to US tariffs and foreign fund movements this week, analysts said. Investors would also focus on world market trends, movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude and the rupee-dollar trend for further cues, experts noted.
Companies may foot less of the tax bill for some time yet. The corporate share of net direct tax collections has been lower in 2024-25 than in previous years. The corporate segment accounted for 45.6 per cent of total net direct tax collections as of March 16, compared to 48.1 per cent on the same date in 2023-24 (FY24).
'While investors believe in India's long-term growth story and resilience amid global uncertainty, they see near-term risks around the direction of a global trade war.'
Wholesale price inflation eased to 2.05 per cent in March, as against 2.38 per cent in February, government data showed on Tuesday. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation, however, rose year-on-year.
State Bank of India, Adani Ports, Tata Consultancy Services, ICICI Bank, Reliance Industries and PowerGrid were also among the laggards.
The US Trade Representative noted that India's average applied tariff rate stood at 17% per cent, the highest of any major world economy.